Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 278
홍차넷
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 34
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 45
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 47
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 51
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 34
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 45
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 47
Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 51
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 269
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 300
Warning: Use of undefined constant title - assumed 'title' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 16
티타임
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 21
Warning: Use of undefined constant header - assumed 'header' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 31
- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 519
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/include/print_category.php on line 9
전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 29
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 41
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 398
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
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Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
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Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
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Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
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Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
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Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 2
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/memo_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 10
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 40
| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 21/09/30 23:28:39 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 수정됨 |
| Name | Folcwine |
| Link #1 | https://widemoat.tistory.com/12 |
| Subject | 정부의 부동산 정책 변화에 대한 생각 |
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본 글은 상당한 논리적 비약과 추측들을 포함하고 있으니 적당히 감안하고 읽어주세요. 靑, 2년만에 "너무 죄송 드릴 말씀 없다" https://news.v.daum.net/v/20210927121534122 최근들어 부동산에 대한 정부의 태도나 멘트들이 조금씩 변화한 것을 느낄 수 있습니다. 오늘은 청와대에서 부동산 정책과 관련하여 사과하는 멘트가 나왔습니다. 불과 얼마 전까지만 해도 '가격이 안정적이다', '추가로 금리를 더 인상할 수 있다', '자산가격 거품 우려' 등의 이야기를 했던 것과는 좀 대조적인 모습입니다. 2017년 8.2대책을 시작으로 정부의 부동산 정책 결과는 '주택의 자가소유율을 억제한 상태에서의 가격 급등'으로 요약할 수 있습니다. 그 이유야 지지율을 유지하면서 증세를 하기 위함이라든지, 당국자들이 보유한 부동산 시세상승 때문이라든지 여러가지를 추측할 수 있겠지만 정확한 것은 정부만 알고 있을 것입니다. 어차피 정책은 결과가 중요한 것이기 때문에 의도가 어떠한지에 대해서는 이야기하지 않겠습니다. 요즘들어 위화감이 드는 것 중 하나는 '주택 공급에 부정적인 의견의 급격한 감소'입니다. "주택 보급률이 100%가 넘었고 세상에 집이 너무 많은데 굳이 더 지어서 토건세력 좋은 일을 시켜줘야 하느냐" 같은 목소리를 찾아보기 힘듭니다. 집은 사는(buy) 것이 아닌 사는(live) 것이라고 말하던 사람들도 공급을 하자고 이야기하는 시대가 되었습니다. 정부의 부동산 정책에서 가장 핵심이 되는 3가지를 꼽는다면 '신도시 개발', '대출규제'. '중단기 공급축소'로 이야기할 수 있을 것 같습니다. 1) 이 중 신도시 개발은 중장기 정책으로 미래에 많은 공급을 일으키는 정책입니다. 재건축과 재개발로도 도심에 주택공급이 가능하지만 분양가 상한제 등으로 막은 상태에서 공급의 주체를 공공이 독점하는 모양새입니다. 재건축과 재개발은 토지주가 정해져 있지만 택지개발은 주인이 미정이죠. 거기에 예비타당성 조사 면제 등을 사용하면서 사회간접자본(SoC) 투자는 역대급 재원을 투입하기 시작했습니다. 2) 대출규제는 주택의 자가소유율이 올라가지 못하도록 막는 장치로 활용되었습니다. 양도세 강화 등 거래를 어렵게 하는 세제개편도 시중의 매물을 줄이고 거래량을 낮추는 역할을 했습니다. 거래량이 줄어드니 주택의 자가소유율이 변화하기도 어려워집니다. 가계대출을 일정 % 내로 일괄 규제를 가하는 가계대출 총액규제도 비슷한 역할을 했습니다. 가계가 대출을 일으켜서 집을 사게 어렵게 만들어서 가계의 주택 구매력을 축적시킨 것입니다. 주담대 LTV를 축소했지만 전세대출은 그대로 둔 것도 마찬가지입니다. 3) 여기에 재건축, 재개발 등 중단기 공급물량이 급격히 감소하고 있습니다. 재건축 실거주 2년 규제 관련 해프닝도 있었고, HUG의 분양가 통제로 분양 자체를 지연시키는 경우도 속출하고 있습니다. 양도세 강화로 매물은 잠겨있는 상태고, 역대급 증여로 묶인 매물도 많습니다. 임대사업자로 묶인 매물도 상당하고, 매물이 나오기 점점 더 어려워지고 있습니다. 모두 종합해보면 한 가지 방향으로 향하고 있습니다. 경기호황기에 대규모 택지개발 및 분양을 통한 이권 형성. (※ '이권'이라는 단어는 가치중립적으로 쓴 것이고 어떤 부정적 뜻을 담아서 쓴 단어는 아닙니다. 오해 ㄴㄴ) 최근 청약 경쟁률만 보더라도 사람들이 얼마나 공급에 목이 마른지 보입니다. 최근엔 판교 대장지구엔 테라스 도시형생활주택을 12~13억원에 분양했습니다. 이때 경쟁률은 300:1이었네요. (여기도 그 유명한 '화천대유'입니다.) 아파트뿐만 아니라 오피스텔, 도생(도시형 생활주택), 생숙(생활형 숙박시설) 등 다양한 대체상품들에도 투자와 실수요가 몰리고 있습니다. 정상적인 시장 환경과 정책 흐름이었다면 불가능했을 분양가에 저런 아파트 대체상품들도 매진 행진을 이어가고 있는 것이죠. 경기 호황기가 온다면 2~3년 뒤 정도일 가능성이 커보입니다. 그러니 지금처럼 금리가 낮고 주택을 매수하기 좋은 여건일 때는 구매를 못 하게 만들어서 구매력을 보존한 다음 나중에 높은 가격에 대규모 분양을 하면 상당한 이권이 형성됩니다. 그때 호황기가 오지 않을 수도 있습니다. 누구도 예상하지 못한 경제위기가 생길 수도 있죠. 하지만 사이클 상 그 언저리일 가능성이 커보입니다. 케이뱅크가 2023년 상장을 계획하는 것도 그때 기업가치를 크게 평가받을 수 있을 것이라 예상하기 때문입니다. 미국이 2023년부터 금리를 올리겠다는 것도 그때 즈음이면 충분히 경기가 회복했을 것이라고 예측하고 있는 것입니다. 이제 규제일변도의 정책 흐름은 지속되기 어려운 상태에 이르렀고, 정부도 지속할 생각이 없어보입니다. 따라서 이제는 어떤 규제가 새롭게 생길지보단 어떤 규제가 먼저 완화될지 잘 예측하고, 정책이 나왔을 때에도 잘 대응하는 것이 필요해보입니다. 실제로 이번 7월에는 정부에서 의외의 행동을 했었죠. 주담대 완화입니다. 7월 주택담보대출 관련 규제를 살짝 완화했고, 그 효과(보금자리론 한도 3억에서 3.6억으로 확대)로 수도권 6억 이하 주택들은 상당한 상승압력을 받았습니다. 옥죄었던 것을 풀면 튀어오르기 때문에 주의깊게 봐야합니다. 이런 전반적인 흐름을 본다면 향후 3~5년 후 청약을 통해 아파트를 분양받겠다는 생각은 꽤 리스키한 선택일 수 있습니다. 분양가 상한제는 곧 없어지거나 상당히 완화될 것으로 보입니다. 물론 이건 맞는 방향이나 뻔히 예견되었던 부작용을 감수하다가 이제와서 바꾼다는 것은 상당히 꽤심하단 생각이 들지 않을 수 없습니다. 고분양가, 고금리에 최대한 많은 사람들이 분양을 받도록 해야 이권이 극대화될 것이니 그동안 주택가격 상승에 기여했으나 앞으로는 장애물이 될 제도들은 차차 사라질 것입니다. 분양가상한제 제도개선 착수한 정부...규제 완화 신호탄? https://news.naver.com/main/read.naver?mode=LSD&mid=sec&sid1=001&oid=052&aid=0001638884 마찬가지로 대출규제도 3기신도시 본청약이 예정된 23~24년 전에는 상당부분 완화가 이뤄질 것입니다. 물론 대출규제를 계속 이어가는 것보단 완화하는 것이 옳은 정책입니다. LTV, DSR 등 제도 전반에서 완화가 이뤄질거라고 봅니다. 반면 정권이 연장된다면 양도세 완화는 기대하기 어려워보입니다. 공공임대 비율 등의 정책도 마찬가지로 오히려 강화될 가능성이 있죠. 만약 이 코스대로 시장 흐름과 정부 정책이 이뤄진다면 부동산 시장과 주택 시장이 엄청나게 과열되는 모습을 볼 수 있을 것 같습니다. 대규모 분양이 시작되면 LTV 완화 등 주택시장에 우호적인 정책이 이뤄질 수 밖에 없고, 90~100%까지 풀어버릴 수도 있을 겁니다. 그러면 없던 구매력도 정부와 은행이 만들어서 제공해주니 분양도 원활하게 잘 될 것이고요. 다만 공급탄력성이 적은 재화 중 대표적인게 주택이니 그 이후의 일은 뻔한 일입니다. 과열 후 강력한 침체가 20년대 후반에 일어날 수 있습니다. 대선을 앞둔 만큼 당분간 큰 움직임은 없겠지만 대선 이후의 부동산 정책을 이해하는데 조금이나마 도움이 되었으면 합니다. 3줄요약 1. 현 정부의 정책은 의도가 어떻든 결과적으로 '구매력 축적' + '대규모 개발' = '거대한 이권' 으로 향하고 있으며, 고분양가, 고금리에 대규모 분양이 이뤄질 것임 2. 부동산 정책도 규제일변도에서 부분적으로 규제완화로 전환될 것 3. 대선이 중요한 분기점이니 시장참여자라면 계속 관심을 가지고 봐야함 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 4 이 게시판에 등록된 Folcwine님의 최근 게시물 |
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Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
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163596 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
163596 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
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163596'> 딸기아빠
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Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
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21/09/30 23:40
163596>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
결국 무주택자가 꼭지 안잡고 집사려면 최소 7~8년은 있어야 된다는 거네요
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
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