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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 20/11/18 01:10:04 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | 절름발이이리 |
| Subject | 한국의 하우징 프라이스에 대한 생각들 |
|
-저는 2017년 경까지는 저평가였다고 생각하고, 18년부터 제가격 수준, 19년부터는 비싼 수준에 이르어 있다고 생각합니다. -사람들은 한국 하우징밖에 안 보겠지만 대략 14~15년 정도를 기점으로 세계 하우징은 거의 대부분 올랐습니다. 18년까지를 보면 한국은 가장 적게 오른 축입니다. -얼마전까지도 집값 개중에서 잘 관리하고 있다는 재밌는 소리를 OECD로부터 듣던걸 보면 19년까지도 그런듯? -이 현상의 본질이 무엇인지를 가장 쉽게 이해하고 싶다면 월드 하우징 프라이스 인덱스를 보면 됩니다. 자산군의 가격은 특정 정부가 좌우하는게 아닙니다. 현 정부 중기에 박스피 가지고 비판하던 분들은 요즘 정부를 빨고 있을지.. -한국은 경제 규모대비 두드러지게 고성장 하는 편이었던 국가임을 감안하면 오히려 희한할 정도로 덜 올랐던 게 17년 정도까지의 느낌입니다. 물론 정부가 잘해서 일리는 없습니다. -오르는게 정상이고 올라야 하는 시장이었고 그래서 올랐으니 특별할 거 없다는게 지난 몇년에 대한 제 뷰인데, 앞으로 더 오른다면 아닙니다. -비싸지는게 잘못이란게 아니라 위험한 상태가 된다는 의미입니다. -물론 비싸거나 많이 비싸졌다고 해서 가격이 꼭 떨어지진 않습니다. -다만 중장기 관점에서 보면 에너지는 분명히 줄어들 것이고, 그것은 잠재된 리스크입니다. 저는 잘해도 어깨는 넘었다고 보고 있고, 더 오를 에너지보다 떨어질 에너지가 커지고 있다고 생각합니다. 동해에서 석유가 치솟지 않는 한은 별로 달라질 것 같지도 않음. -돌이켜보면 서브 프라임 이후 횡보를 거친 끝에 12~14년 구간은 하우징 하락론이 대세였고, 전세는 사라지고 월세가 자리잡을 것이며, 일본의 뒤를 따를 것이라던 선대인이 유행하던 시기였습니다. 주식에 비할바는 아니지만 역사적으로든 실질적으로든 하우징은 무조건 오르기만 하는 자산군은 절대 아닙니다. 하지만 늘 지나고 나서야 깨닫지요. -이번엔 다르다? 대세상승장의 마지막에는 맹신만이 가득합니다. 그러나 그걸로만 유지할 수는 없습니다. 경제의 사이클이 한 계절만 머무를 수는 없습니다. -많은 이들이 늘 집값과 정부의 정책을 연계해 생각합니다. 물론 둘은 인과관계가 있습니다. 그러나 중요한건 그러거나 말거나 올 하락장은 오고, 올 상승장은 온다는 겁니다. -아 물론 주요입지는 떨어져도 장기적으로 인플레이션 헷징은 충분히 할 겁니다. 애매한 동네는 아닐 수도 있습니다. -애매한 곳과 같은 곳에서 중산층이 집을 자가로 마련하는건 지금도 앞으로도 계속 가능할 겁니다. -여기서 말하는 싸다, 비싸다는 한국 경제의 규모에 비례해서 나오는 가치평가적인 판단이지, 내가 살수 있냐 없냐나 과거에 얼마였냐와는 전혀 무관합니다. 그 가격에 사고 파는 사람이 있으니 그 가격이 찍히는 거고 그거면 그 가격이 형성될 이유는 충분합니다. -늘 하는말인데 내가 세상의 현상에서 뭘 어떻게 느끼고 박탈감을 갖냐 마냐 같은건 개인의 대응 차원에선 아무런 의미가 없습니다. -집 값이 내가 노력하면 살 수 있는 정도여야 하는게 당연한가요? 전 별로 동의하지 않습니다. 그게 왜 당연한 걸까요. -게다 엄밀히 말하면 지금도 자가로 살 수 있는 집은 널렸는데 눈에 안찰 뿐이겠지요. 주거권은 노숙자쯤은 되어야 꺼낼 얘기가 아닌지 싶은데.. -가격에는 당위가 없습니다. 효율적인 가격과 비효율적인 가격이 있을 뿐입니다. 가격에 당위가 있다고 믿는자들이 시장을 왜곡합니다. 방향과 방식은 각자 다르겠지요. -시장은 효율적인 가격을 향해가지, 내가 만족할 가격을 향해가지 않습니다. -시장주의자는 시장에서 형성된 가격을 존중할 필요가 있습니다. 한국은 시장주의자가 어느 편에도 없지만요. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 20 이 게시판에 등록된 절름발이이리님의 최근 게시물 |
|
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Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 609
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 614
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 616
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
150533 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
150533 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
150533'> 그저그런
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
20/11/18 01:39
150533>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
1) 향후 가격 예측에 대해서는 개인차가 있을것 같습니다. 내리는 비는 그치듯 언젠가 멈추거나 떨어진다는데에는 동의하지만 내년에 어떨지는 모르겠습니다. 시장에서 공급이 없는게 불안합니다.
2) 오르는게 정상이고 올라야 하는 시장이라는 데에는 동의하지만, 정부가 정책을 이상하게 써서 불필요하게 더 부스팅하고 몇몇 시장왜곡을 만들었다고 생각 합니다. 전세 소멸의 '가속화' 같은거요.
3) 박탈감을 갖냐 마냐 같은건 개인의 대응 차원에선 아무런 의미가 없다고 드라이하게 생각하면 쿨할 수는 있겠지만 킹받는건 킹받습니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
2
2) 오르는게 정상이고 올라야 하는 시장이라는 데에는 동의하지만, 정부가 정책을 이상하게 써서 불필요하게 더 부스팅하고 몇몇 시장왜곡을 만들었다고 생각 합니다. 전세 소멸의 '가속화' 같은거요.
3) 박탈감을 갖냐 마냐 같은건 개인의 대응 차원에선 아무런 의미가 없다고 드라이하게 생각하면 쿨할 수는 있겠지만 킹받는건 킹받습니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
2
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