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홍차넷
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티타임
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
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전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
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| Date |
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| Name | moqq |
| Subject | 리튬 전망 중간 정리 (요약 아직 모르겠음) |
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혼자 정리하는 내용이라 말이 짦은 죄송. 관심기업이던 리튬아메리카 LAC가 떡상해서 아쉬워하며 이것 저것 뒤적이다가 좋은 자료 발견. 미국 office of industry paper. ‘Global Value Chains: Lithium in Lithium-ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles’ 아래 내용은 위 문서를 많이 참고하였으며, 인터넷 기사등이 내 머릿속에서 짜집기 되었음. 리튬은 미가공원석, 가공화합물, 정제화합물 형태로 구분가능 리튬 공급 체인은 첫번째로 호주에서 생산되는 광물 형태, 두 번째로 남미에서 생산되는 brine extraction. 호주가 공급이 더 많으며, 수요 증가시 공급여력도 호주가 더 많음. 리튬가격은 2017년 한 번 떡상했다가 공급 증가로 인해 최근 몇 년간 하락세. 호주 서부 광산도 생산량을 50%정도 감소시켰음. 호주에서 생산하는 광물은 미가공원석으로 80% 중국으로 수출. 광물형태의 리튬은 가공-정제를 거쳐 수산화 리튬으로 변환됨 호주산 광물 수출가격은 현재 0.34불/kg (2018년엔 0.8불이었음) 중국으로 들어가는 리튬은 거의 자국내에서 소비되기 때문에 중국기업들의 마진은 알기 어려우나 수산화리튬의 국제거래 가격은 9불/kg 중국은 국가적으로 리튬 기업들을 지원하며 Tianqi, Ganfeng이 최대 기업 두 곳. Tianqi, ganfeng이 마진을 많이 남길 것 같지만 현재 적자기업. 뇌피셜인데 그 이유로 추정되는 것은 원석->리튬 전환율 (4%) '호주 서부 최대 채굴업체 탈리슨 리튬은 서부호주 '그린부시'라는 주요 리튬 광산을 운영하며 연간 134만톤의 리튬 광산을 생산.' Talison Lithium, “Greenbushes Project,” accessed July 23, 2019; and Leni, “The Lithium Supply and Demand Story,” January 30, 2017. '이 생산능력은 리튬 함량 약 5.9만톤, 2018년 전 세계 리튬 생산량의 59.9%에 해당.' Leni, “The Lithium Supply and Demand Story,” January 30, 2017. 즉 1.34M ore -> 50.9k 리튬으로 전환 (5.09만톤/134만톤 => 3.8%) 대충 4% 잡고 0,34불짜리 25개면 8,5불인데 이거 가공하면 9딸라됨.. 수익이 나기 어렵지 않나 싶음. 아르헨티나에서 나오는 리튬은 광석이 아니라 염전방식으로 추출하는 것이고 생산지에서 탄산리튬이라는 가공된 형태로 판매. 탄산리튬은 수산화리튬으로 변환해야 배터리용으로 적합하며 전환비용은 1.5불/kg라서 수산화리튬보다 싼 6.5불/kg에 거래됨 한국, 중국, 일본이 남미탄산리튬의 주 수입국가. 중국은 호주것도 모자라 남미것도 수입하며, 남미 광산에 지분인수 많이 하고 있음. 한국, 일본은 리튬생산은 전혀 없어 수입의존도가 큼. 주요 생산 업체는 albermale, sqm. 관심기업이던 Lithium America 역시 아르헨티나 광산 하나를 간평과 같이 개발 중. Lithium america 에서 밝힌 자료에 의하면 남미쪽 생산단가는 kg당 3.5불, 네바다 광산은 부산물 판매수입을 챙길시 생산단가 2.5불/kg로 추정된다고 함. 그러면 얘내가 탄산리튬 6.5불/kg에 팔리는 거임. LAC가 계획대로 2025년 경 남미, 북미 광산 다 돌려서 8만톤 정도 생산해서 톤당 6000불에 팔고, 운영비로 3000불 정도 쓴다치면 수익이 0.24빌리언이고 현재 리튬 생산업체중에 가장 낮은 sqm의 per곱하면 시총 3.84B 현재 시통 1.32B니까 업사이드가 있긴 한데.. 참고로 lac는 현재 매출0인 계획만 있는 기업. 계획이 실현될지.. 먼 미래의 가치가 주가에 언제 반영될지 애매하고.. 리튬 전망 자체도 좀 불안한게 생산업체들은 2023년부터 수요증가 예상. 비관계자들은 그만큼 공급증가 예상. 결국 수요증가가 공급을 넘겨서 수산화리튬가격이 오르고 (호주쪽 생산이 딸려야 함) 그게 탄산리튬가격을 견인해야 남미쪽 생산업체들 이익으로 전환됨. 그리고 이차전지 수요가 생기려면 전기차의 양산이 가능해야 함. 양산이 가능한 곳은 테슬라 밖에 없지 않나? 테슬라는 최근에 Piedmont에서 5년간 리튬 spodumene 15만톤 납품계약 체결 Spodumene는 미가공원석으로 15만톤이면 4%전환 가정시 6000톤이고 테슬라 모델X에는 63키로의 리튬 필요하다니까 대략 900만에서 1000만대 생산가능한 분량. 근데 테슬라가 리튬 가공기술이 있느냐.. 그리고 그 리튬으로 배터리를 양산이 가능하고 불량품없는 수율을 맞출 수 있느냐도 관건. 테슬라가 갑자기 LG나 파나소닉만큼 배터리 생산이 가능할까? 배터리 900만개는 현재 어디서도 못만듬. 2019년 세계 리튬 생산이 9만톤이었음. 결론 아모른직다. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 1 이 게시판에 등록된 moqq님의 최근 게시물 |
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Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 628
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 644
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 646
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
148985 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
148985 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
148985'> 기아트윈스
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
20/10/04 17:08
148985>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
왜 좋은 광물은 다 호주에서 나올까요 ㅋㅋㅋ 레알 21세기의 사우디 되겠네.
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
148985>
148985>
