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홍차넷
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Warning: Use of undefined constant r - assumed 'r' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/outlogin_toby.php on line 47
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Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 237
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 269
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/zero_header.php on line 300
Warning: Use of undefined constant title - assumed 'title' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 16
티타임
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/bbs_title.php on line 21
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- 다양한 주제에 대해 자유롭게 글을 작성하는 게시판입니다.
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 519
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/include/print_category.php on line 9
전체기타일상/생각꿀팁/강좌방송/연예도서/문학영화의료/건강문화/예술경제생활체육과학/기술철학/종교정치요리/음식역사여행육아/가정IT/컴퓨터음악창작게임스포츠사회오프모임
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/setup.php on line 29
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Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
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Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 389
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 398
Warning: Use of undefined constant subject - assumed 'subject' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 402
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 403
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 405
Warning: Use of undefined constant total_comment - assumed 'total_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 406
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 2
Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/memo_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 10
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 40
| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 20/07/05 20:30:06 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | 할머니 |
| Subject | 정부의 부동산 정책에 대한 개인적 평가 |
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모든 시장가격은 수요곡선과 공급곡선이 만나는 점에서 정해집니다. 주식이건, 부동산이건, 우리가 사용하는 재화건 마찬가지입니다. 그래서 누군가는 서울아파트의 공급이 막혀있고, 실수요는 넘쳐나니 서울아파트가 떨어질일은 없다고 말합니다. 이건 절반만 맞는 말입니다. 서울 아파트의 공급이 정책적으로 막혀있는건 사실이지만, 실수요가 넘쳐난다고 수요가 넘쳐나진 않습니다. 집값 하락이 너무나 분명하게 예상된다면, 실수요자도 집을 사지 않습니다. 전세나 월세를 선택합니다. 고로 현존하는 투기수요를 전부 없앤다면, 수요곡선은 왼쪽으로 이동하고 부동산 가격은 하락할겁니다. 정부의 발상이 틀리지는 않았다는거죠. 그런데 왜 정부는 집값을 잡는데 실패했을까요. 1. 외부환경 - 모든 가치는 수익과 할인율의 함수로 표현할 수 있습니다. 할인율은 이자율과 유사한 의미입니다. 예금금리가 2%라면, 아파트 투자자들은 3%의 수익을 기대할 거고, 오피스텔 투자자들은 4%의 수익을 기대할겁니다. 좀 더 이론적으로 부동산 업계의 수식으로 표현하면 V(가격) = NOI(수익) / Cap.rate(할인율) 입니다. - 3년물 국고채 금리가 2017년 기준 1.7% , 현재는 0.85% 입니다. 대략 평균적으로 서울 중간수준 아파트는 3년물 국고채금리보다 0.5% 정도 만큼 위험하게 평가되는 것 같습니다. 고로 서울 아파트의 기대 수익율은 2017년에는 2.2% , 현재는 1.35% 입니다. 고로 월세가 100만원인 부동산의 17년 이론가격은 5.5억(= 100만원 X 12개월 / 2.2% ) 인데, 현재는 8.8억(=100만원 X 12개월 / 1.35%) 입니다. - 즉 평범하게 아무것도 안했어도 서울 아파트 가격은 올랐을거라는 현 정부 지지자들의 말은 아예 틀린말은 아닙니다. 어려운 외부환경인거 인정하는 바입니다. - 그런데 그러면 그동안 규제는 뭐한건지 의심스러워 집니다. - 심지어 19년부터 코로나 전까지 서울 아파트의 기대수익율은 3년 국고채보다도 낮았습니다. 그 말은 서울아파트가 3년 정부채권보다도 안전한걸로 여겨지고 있었다는겁니다. 이건 어떻게 설명해야할까요? 2. 17년 (2017.08.02 부동산 대책) - 17년 규제의 주요 골자는 다음과 같습니다. 청약 가점제 확대, LTV DTI 40%, 재건축 초과이익 환수제 및 분양가 상한제, 임대사업자 등록제 - 위 정책을 보고도 아파트를 살 수 있는데도 안 산 사람은 단연컨데 부동산을 전혀 모르는 사람이라고 봅니다. 저 또한 처음에는 정부에 기대를 했지만, 위 정책을 보고 바로 포기하고 9월에 정책효과로 가격이 떨어졌을때 매수를 했죠. 가 . 청약 가점제 확대 - 가점제 확대로 30대 및 자녀가 적은 40대가 분양 받을 가능성은 제로가 됩니다. 이들은 전부 매매수요로 전환되어 18년~19년 영끌러쉬로 부동산 가격 상승에 이바지하게 됩니다. 나. LTV, DTi 40% - 못사게 만드는 정책입니다. 당연히 수요 감소에 영향을 미칩니다. 그런데 안그랬어요. 왜일까요? - 고소득 맞벌이는 주택담보대출만큼 신용대출을 얻을 수 있습니다. 고소득 맞벌이는 둘이 합쳐서 4억정도까지 신용대출을 열 수 있었고, 신용대출 4억 + 주택담보대출 4억 + Equity 2억으로 집을 사댈 수 있었습니다. - 즉 서울아파트 시장의 주요 소비층은 LTV,DTI 규제의 영향을 제한적으로 받았고, 따라서 정책효과는 거의 없었습니다. 다. 임대사업자등록제 - 아주 전형적인 매매시장 공급 축소 정책입니다. 라. 기타 재건축 정책 등 - 재건축은 단기적으로 매매시장에 악영향을 미치므로, 재건축을 어렵게 만든 정책이 단기적으로 집값 상승에 이바지했을지는 의문입니다. 3. 18~현재까지 정책들 - 결국 17년 규제의 열화카피들일 뿐입니다. 보유세를 올리고, 등등. 팔아야 할 이유와 사야할 이유 어떤것도 자극하지 못하고 있습니다. 결국 김상조 정책실장 취임전까지 정부 정책은 수요와 공급에 대한 고민이 단 1도 없었습니다. 팔아야만 하는 이유, 사지 말아야만 할 이유에 대한 고려가 없으니 정책은 전부 허상이 되고, 부동산 가격은 시장의 논리를 따라 금리 하락분을 그대로 먹고, 심지어 금리 효과보다 더 상승해버립니다. 정부 정책이 그나마 정신을 차리기 시작한건 김수현 정책실장이 물러나고 김상조 정책실장이 부동산 정책을 담당하기 시작하면서 입니다. 작년 15억 대출규제 제한 이후로, 어쨋건 정부는 수급을 고려하면서 사야할 이유 팔아야할 이유를 만들어주며 움직이기 시작했습니다. 이에 대한 이야기는 다음에.. Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 20
이 게시판에 등록된 할머니님의 최근 게시물 |
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Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 185
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Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
Warning: Use of undefined constant grant_delete - assumed 'grant_delete' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 577
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Warning: Use of undefined constant use_formmail - assumed 'use_formmail' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 605
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Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 600
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 605
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Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant name - assumed 'name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 618
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 612
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Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 620
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Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 640
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Warning: Use of undefined constant HTTP_HOST - assumed 'HTTP_HOST' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/cmt_replace.php on line 3
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
145688 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
145688 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
145688'> kaestro
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
20/07/05 20:40
145688>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
부동산 정책에 이 정도로 분석적으로 접근하는 글은 처음 봤는데 재밌네요
다음 글도 기대하고 있겠습니다
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
1
다음 글도 기대하고 있겠습니다
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 168
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
1
145688>
145688>
