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홍차넷
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야구
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- 스포츠 게시판입니다.
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전체야구축구농구올림픽월드컵기타
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| Date |
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 53 15/06/16 11:36:55 Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 56 |
| Name | kpark |
| Subject | [스탯] 잔루율(LOB%)에 대한 쬐끔 아쉬운 기사 하나 |
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http://sports.news.naver.com/sports/index.nhn?category=baseball&ctg=news&mod=read&office_id=311&article_id=0000483827 이전에 모자란 지식을 쥐어 짜내서 [잔루율(LOB%, Left On Base%)]이라는 스탯에 대해서 글을 하나 올린 적 있는데요. https://new.redtea.kr/pb/pb.php?id=bb&no=55 방금 네이버 스포츠 야구 섹션 첫 페이지에 '너를 남기고 와야 내가 산다 - 잔루율 Top5 불펜투수'라는 제목의 기사를 발견했습니다. 다수 독자를 대상으로 하는 포탈의 첫 페이지 기사에 저런 생소한 용어가 들어가다니, 신기하기도 하고 반갑기도 한 마음에 기사를 눌러봤습죠. 근데 기사를 읽고 나니 아쉬운 마음이 들었습니다. 바로 이 대목 떄문이었어요. (전략) [NC 다이노스의 불펜투수 이민호의 잔루율은 83.7%로 30이닝 이상을 소화한 불펜투수 가운데 가장 높다. 잔루율 83.7%는, 이민호가 중간투수로 나가면 베이스에 있는 주자 10명 중 8.37명은 잔루로 남기고 내려왔다는 뜻이다.] (후략) -_-; 기자님... 잔루율이 그런 뜻이 아닐텐데... 물론 LOB%라는 이름부터 직역하면 '잔루 주자 비율'이 되기도 하고, 쉽게 요약해 말하자면 저렇게 쓰는 편이 낫기도 합니다. 완전 이해가 안되는 대목은 아닙니다. 하지만 LOB%는 자신을 구원하는 투수가 불을 질러도(퐈이야!!!!!) 값이 뚝뚝 떨어지고, 엄청난 운빨(우주가 우리를 돕는다!!) 덕에 값이 크게 치솟기도 합니다. 즉, 대충 읽으면 마치 투수 1인이 장판파 위의 장비처럼 수문장 역할을 해서 수치가 좋다고 해석할 수도 있지만... 실은 그게 외부 변수가 작용하는 면도 있다는거죠. 잔루율이라는 개념이 국내에 이렇게 주목 받는 자리에 나온 건 처음인 것 같기에, 좀 더 정확한 설명이 들어갔으면 하는 아쉬움이 남네요. 잔루율 구하는 공식을 다시 살펴보면, 이렇습니다. LOB% = (H+BB+HBP-R)/(H+BB+HBP-1.4*HR) H=피안타, BB=볼넷, HBP=사구(몸에 맞는 공), R=실점, HR=홈런 보시다시피... 분모가 내보낸 주자의 숫자도 아니고, 분자가 들여보내지 않은 주자의 숫자인 것도 아닙니다. 엄밀히 말해 '내보낸 주자 중에 잔루시킨 주자의 비율'이란 해석은 정확하지 않다는 것이죠. 물론 대강 숫자는 비슷할 수도 있겠지만 말이죠. 사실 정확한 잔루 주자 비율을 구하는 수치는 야구 통계사이트에서 특별히 취급하고 있지도 않습니다. 분모가 뭐가 되어야 하는지, 분자가 뭐가 되어야 할지 생각해보면 곤혹스럽거든요. 그럼 이번엔 기사의 원래 목적으로 돌아가볼게요. 원래 기사의 목적은 '주자를 들여보내지 않는 강력한 구원투수'를 부각시키는 거였습니다. 그렇다면 오히려 승계주자 실점율(IRS, Inherited Runners Scored)이란 수치가 더 이에 알맞을 수도 있습니다. 흔히 말하는 '분식회계'의 비율을 구할 때 가장 안성맞춤인 수치라고 할 수 있죠. 아니면, WPA(Win Probability Added)라는 수치도 구원투수의 당 시즌 고과를 산정하는데 좋은 지표가 될 수 있습니다. WPA는 선수의 플레이가 있기 전/후에 팀의 승리 가능성이 어떻게 변했는지를 누적해 기록하는 수치입니다. 쉽게 말해 승리 가능성 50%인 상황에서 무언가 플레이(만루홈런이든, 퍼펙트게임이든요)를 하고 났더니 승리 가능성이 53%가 됐다면 3%를 더해주는 식으로 계산합니다. 선수 본연의 '능력치'를 예상하는데 좋은 기록이라고 보긴 어렵지만, 결과만을 놓고 살펴보기엔 괜찮은 지표입니다. 특히나 구원투수들은 접전 상황에서 올라오는 경우가 잦기에, 불을 지르느냐 불을 끄느냐에 따라 해당 경기의 승리 가능성이 순식간에 오르락내리락합니다. 때문에 구원 투수들의 WPA 값을 비교해보면, 올해 이 선수가 소방수로 많이 활약했는지, 방화범으로 많이 활약했는지를 쉽게 파악할 수 있습니다. 어쨌든... 기사에서 '베이스에 있는 주자 N명 중 들여보내지 않은 이들의 비율'이라는 LOB%에 대한 설명이, 정말 100% 정확한 설명은 아닙니다. 물론 LOB%라는 개념을 소개할 때는 이런 쉬운 비유가 이해를 돕는데 좋다는 것도 알고 있습니다. 하지만 수식이 정말 간단한 편이기 떄문에(FIP, UZR 그런 nerd한 것보다는 훨씬!! 쉽습니다) 짤막하게 설명을 붙였다면, 혹시라도 모를 오해를 풀 수도 있지 않았을까... 작은 아쉬움이 남긴 하네요. 뭐, 그래도 네이버 스포츠 대문에 저런 용어가 나온게 어디야~라는 생각으로 마무리합니다. 크크 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 133 Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 146 Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view.php on line 161 0 이 게시판에 등록된 kpark님의 최근 게시물
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Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 6
Warning: Use of undefined constant file_name - assumed 'file_name' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 28
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 65
634 class="iamcmt" style="display:none;"> Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 66
634 class='vcm '>
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 70
Warning: Use of undefined constant x - assumed 'x' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 71
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 76
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 117
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 118
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 119
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 120
Warning: Use of undefined constant ismember - assumed 'ismember' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 121
634'> 레지엔
Warning: Use of undefined constant mod_date - assumed 'mod_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 133
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 140
Warning: Use of undefined constant reg_date - assumed 'reg_date' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 142
15/06/16 15:19
634>삭제 주소복사
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 150
한국 야구야 뭐 현직에 아직도 종속 이론 신봉자도 있고 타율은 믿지만 세이버는 안믿는다는 웃긴 양반들도 있어서... 기자는 더하겠죠(..)
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 158
Warning: Use of undefined constant password - assumed 'password' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 166
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 171
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 172
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
Warning: Use of undefined constant vote - assumed 'vote' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_comment.php on line 173
634>
634>
Warning: Use of undefined constant level - assumed 'level' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 659
Warning: Use of undefined constant grant_comment - assumed 'grant_comment' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/view.php on line 659
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목록
Warning: Use of undefined constant is_admin - assumed 'is_admin' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/view_foot.php on line 11 |
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Warning: Use of undefined constant memo - assumed 'memo' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 185
Warning: Use of undefined constant skinname - assumed 'skinname' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/pb.php on line 246
Warning: Use of undefined constant use_category - assumed 'use_category' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/a_skin/bbsd/list_head.php on line 2
Warning: Use of undefined constant no - assumed 'no' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/pb.php on line 319
Warning: Use of undefined constant skinname - assumed 'skinname' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 554
Warning: Use of undefined constant footer - assumed 'footer' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/redtea/html/pb/lib.php on line 556